Week 
Date 
Topics 
Pages in notes 
Other media/sources 
1 

Catastrophic risk.
* Introduction to
"Risk" defined and categorized.
* Example
of a risk calculation.
* Review
of basic probability theory
* 'Addition' formulae, & Venn diagrams.
* Multiplication and Conditional probabilities 
Outline
and p. 58, 915
Q# 1 (p. 67) 
PP:
"Fly or drive"
PP: Notes
on probability 
2 

Catastrophic
risk. (contd.)
* Use of
contingency tables  examples
* Trees.
* Dependence, 
p.
926
Q# 25
(p. 6768)

PP
Solutions to problems on
catastrophic risk 
3 

Catastrophic risk. (contd.)
* Baye's
theorem for prior probabilities
* Use of
exponents for outcomes with highN iterations 
p.1923
Q# 1318 
PP
Solutions to problems on
catastrophic risk 
4 

Catastrophic risk. (contd.)
* Reverse
calculations, review, special situations and more problemsolving examples

All of this section and all remaining problems in handbook
(p. 6771)

PP
Backcalculation
NEW PP
Solution to #19
PP
Solutions to problems on
catastrophic risk 
5 

Chronic
risk: 4step EPA model: step 1 and step 2
and review doseresponse & toxicology 
worked examples step 1 and step 2
P. 2938 
PP:
EPA STEP 2: Env Pathways
DVD: RISK: NATURE OF THINGS CBC 
OCT 812 
READING WEEK

6 

#1 Takehome assignment final due date
Chronic
risk (contd.): 4step EPA model step 34 (contd)
Brief review of the relevant toxicology

P. 3945
R.E.
Keenan notes p.4647 .

PP:
stochastic
PP:
EPA STEP 3 : toxicology
review
PP:
EPA STEP 4:
characterizationPP_

7 

Risk Characterisation examples
using environmental data and case studies.

P. 4864 
PP example: arsenic in water
PP: Delaney clause

8 

Chronic
risk (contd.): This week we will go through further examples
in class, calculating daily intakes and dealing with variations in types of
questions and endpoints of the calculation. Review of methods and
examples Sample 4table spreadsheet for
practice
POSTED HERE: #2 Sevenday takehome assignment 
P. 4864 

9 

#2 Assignment Due FRI 9 NOV: 3:30 p.m. Drop box outside POD249
Risk
Perception: Principles  overview of the literature and state
of the art. 
Slovic mental mapping model p.73
Cluster analysis videos and discussion 
pp:
Introduction to outrage factors (to be taken up in full next week

10 

Outrage factors: (Peter Sandman)

Hance, Chess & Sandman p.86
Covello, p.74
Sly. p. 91 
PP:
Outrage factors
(part 1) Please note that the blueonblue text on some of these slides is
intentional. The CONTRASTED items are the only ones you should focus on in
each example) 
11 

Case study: Town Hall meeting


DVD: ETOBICOKE BL4 LAB case study: town hall meeting Part 1
DVD: ETOBICOKE BL4 LAB case study: town hall meeting Part 2

12 

Risk communication principles; problem solving,
getting the message right, tackling the media. Samples of good
and bad media responses (in video and print).

Wilson & Crouch
p.77

pp: 23 tips
for risk communication
pp: Dos and don'ts of
R/Communic
PP
Dealing
with the media

Exam period: 
