PROTEUS

NOT IN USE for 2013!!!!!!.....

Risk Assessment and Communication

 PROTEUS home Main Page and weekly log TESTS & EXAMS EXAM ROOM ARRANGEMENTS PRACTICE PROBLEMS, and solutions: (trees, etc.) PRACTICE PROBLEMS, and solutions (chronic risk calculations) ASSIGNMENT (not for W2013) UNCERTAINTY

## Risk ASSESSMENT AND COMMUNICATION

for ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

 THE WEEKLY LOG:  The proposed content for each week is shown in a  light GREEN, and as we actually cover the material, the background will revert to a  yellow,  confirming the content. This will help in remembering what we covered each week and also for exam/test review.  It also allows you to access links to any available Powerpoint® material from that week.        CAUTION!  Powerpoint® can be dangerous to your mastery of this material.  We have observed an INCREASING failure rate among people who view these graphic explanations and illustrations in class or at home without actually doing the analysis. The content may seem clear and understandable at the time, but to retain it, understand it, and attain the competency for exam purposes or real-world situations, you MUST actually DO the calculations yourself, several times.  In general, material that is well covered in the course notes will not be reproduced again here.  Powerpoint® will be used to supplement course notes and follow up with content that needs a little extra depth.

### Just to be clear, the assignment is out of 30.   If it earns 26.5 marks, the new mark is 26.5 x 1.075 = 28.5  If you earn 28, the new mark will be 30

 Week Date Topics Pages in notes Other media/sources 1 Catastrophic risk.   * Introduction to "Risk" defined and categorized.    * Example of a risk calculation.     * Review of basic probability theory  * 'Addition' formulae, & Venn diagrams.  * Multiplication and Conditional probabilities Outline and p. 5-8, 9-15 Q# 1 (p. 67) PP: PP: 2 Catastrophic risk. (contd.)  * Use of contingency tables - examples  * Trees.  * Dependence, p. 9-26  Q# 2-5  (p. 67-68) 3 Catastrophic risk. (contd.)  * Baye's theorem for prior probabilities  * Use of exponents for outcomes with high-N iterations p.19-23 Q# 13-18 4 Catastrophic risk. (contd.) * Reverse calculations,  review, special situations and more problem-solving examples All of this section and all remaining problems in handbook (p. 67-71) PP  Back-calculation NEW PP Solution to #19 5 Chronic risk: 4-step EPA model: step 1 and step 2                           and review dose-response & toxicology worked examples step 1 and step 2 P. 29-38 DVD: RISK: NATURE OF THINGS CBC OCT 8-12 READING WEEK 6 #1 Take-home assignment final due date   Chronic risk (contd.): 4-step EPA model  step 3-4 (contd)   Brief review of the relevant toxicology P. 39-45 R.E. Keenan notes p.46-47 . PP: stochastic 7 Risk Characterisation examples using environmental data and case studies. P. 48-64 PP: Delaney clause 8 Chronic risk (contd.):  This week we will go through further  examples in class, calculating daily intakes and dealing with variations in types of questions and endpoints of the calculation. Review of methods and examplesSample 4-table spreadsheet for practice     POSTED HERE: #2 Seven-day take-home assignment P. 48-64 9 #2 Assignment Due FRI 9 NOV: 3:30 p.m. Drop box outside POD249     Risk Perception:  Principles - overview of the literature and state of the art. Slovic mental mapping model p.73 Cluster analysis videos and discussion pp: Introduction to outrage factors (to be taken up in full next week 10 Outrage factors: (Peter Sandman) Hance, Chess & Sandman p.86 Covello, p.74 Sly.  p. 91 PP: Outrage factors  (part 1)  Please note that the blue-on-blue text on some of these slides is intentional. The CONTRASTED items are the only ones you should focus on in each example) 11 Case study: Town Hall meeting DVD: ETOBICOKE BL4 LAB case study: town hall meeting Part 1 DVD: ETOBICOKE BL4 LAB case study: town hall meeting Part 2 12 Risk communication principles;  problem solving, getting the message right, tackling the media.   Samples of good and bad media responses (in video and print). Wilson & Crouch p.77 PP Dealing with the media Exam period: