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 PRACTICE PROBLEMS, (Probability trees, etc.)  
 PRACTICE PROBLEMS, (Chronic risk calculations)



SESSION LOG    This is provisionally scheduled.  It will be adjusted as we go through it as a reminder of what we did each week (The colour will change from green to yellow). 

Week Date Topics Pages in notes Other media/sources

 * Introduction to Catastrophic risk. 

 * "Risk" defined and categorized.  

 * Example of a risk calculation.   

 * Review of basic probability theory, examples using formulae, &

                   Venn diagrams.

Outline and p.2-8 PP: "Fly or drive" 

PP.  notes on probability

2    *Contd. use of contingency tables and trees.

 * Conditional probabilities, dependence,

p. 8-23 PP.  notes on probability

 * Baye's theorem for prior probabilities;

 * Use of exponents for outcomes with high-N iterations 




PP Solutions to problems on catastrophic risk


 * Reverse calculations,


 * Review and problem-solving examples   

  PP  Back-calculation example

 * : Mid-term test #1 


 * Chronic risk: Intro: Four-step EPA model: step 1

 step 1

Section 3.0 up to p35

EPA Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)


    READING WEEK (no classes)
6    * Chronic risk: step 2 (contd.),


 * Review dose-response & toxicology

 * Chronic risk: step 3

step 2 and sep 3


p 26-30

 p 40-41


  p. 48-51 

PP: EPA STEP 3 : toxicology review  





   * Chronic risk: step 4, and examples 

 * Monte-Carlo (stochastic) techniques. 

 * Chronic risk: Criticism of the risk assessment model;

Keenan notes p.40-41 in Course Handbook

PP: stochastic

PP: EPA  STEP 4: characterization

PP: PP_ example: arsenic in water




     NEW!..Just posted:...  Solutions to questions on p.44

  Practice spreadsheet analysis distributed for Mid-term test#2

  Special examples and case studies.

  UFFI insulation case study



PP: Delaney clause


9    *  Mid-term test #2  



  PP: uncertainty


Risk Comparisons

10    * Risk perception & Communication  R: f(H,O)

 * Risk Perception & communication: Uncertainty. More case studies

 * Seven Steps in Risk Communication 

Papers by Hance, Chess, Sandman, V. Covello

PP: outrage factor page  (Please note that the blue-on-blue text on some of these slides is intentional. The CONTRASTED items are the only ones you should focus on in each example)

VIDEO:   Selected media/tapes

PP 23 tips for risk communication

11    * Risk Communication: getting the message right,



DVD: ETOBICOKE BL4 LAB case study: town hall meeting

PP:Dos & Don'ts of communications

7-point checklist (see Sly, CPHA in manual)


 * Media relations:  the press, radio and TV interviews

 * Tuesday Apr 9: REVIEW of all course


PP Dealing with the media

DVD: Numbers and Probabilities



      E X A M   P E R I O D  (T O   B E   A N N O U N C E D )