PROTEUS

PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS

TO CKSH 100 ......PLEASE NOTE.... Here are the answers to the FIVE questions we examined during the class.

 5 (a) 0.40   (b) 0.60    (c) 0.70   (d) yes 6 (a) 5.988x10-3  (b) 0.994012 11 Dialysis: 68% survival  vs.  transpl: 66% survival 14 (a) 0.11385    (b) 0.99967    (c) 0.88615 16 (a) 1.62%  (b) 0.108  (c) 0.8878  (d) 706 more survived due to partial Tr than if no Tr avail;    (e) 176 more d could have been prev by 100% Tr      NOTE :  The key approach to (d) is to compare survivors now (with partial tr) =1605.6  against the expected number of survivors if NO tr was available : in other words  at a 50% fatality rate: (1800)(0.50)=900.  Difference is 705.6    Similarly, [e]  compares deaths now (with partial treatment) = 194.4  with deaths if tr were  available for all - in other words a 1% fatality rate: (1800)(0.01)=18 leaving a difference of = 176

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Here is a worked example

EIGHT percent of the food may contain wh/bar/rye when not shown on the label, and eight percent of the food will NOT contain wh/bar/rye even when the label says it does.....

So the probability of at least ONE child with allergy in a class of 30 is 0.454

What is the probability of selecting one child at random who is allergic to nuts or tartrazine, or both?